The Mineral Wars: How Russia Controls Ukraine's Lithium and US Targets Venezuela's Silver.
Two Military Conflicts Over Critical Minerals for AI Infrastructure and Green Technology During Global Supply Deficits, while protesters foolishly trade flags.
Someone pointed out Venezuela’s silver angle I’d missed. Then someone asked about Ukraine’s mineral resources. That’s when I saw the pattern.
Same logic. Two conflicts. Let me show you.
February 2022. Russia invades Ukraine. Everyone argues NATO expansion, Ukrainian sovereignty, Putin’s aggression. Valid tensions. Global protests about democracy versus authoritarianism.
But notice what nobody emphasised: Ukraine holds 5% of world’s mineral resources despite being 0.4% of Earth’s surface.
Europe’s largest lithium reserves: 500,000 tonnes. Essential for electric vehicle batteries. Ukraine’s also got 7% of world’s titanium reserves, rare earth elements, uranium, graphite. Twenty thousand mineral deposits covering 117 of 120 most globally used metals. Value: $3-11.5 trillion.
Geographic concentration: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Kharkiv.
The exact regions Russia invaded and occupied.
By December 2022, Russia controlled 50-100% of Ukraine’s lithium reserves, 40% of total metal resources, 80% of Black Sea gas deposits. Over $12.5 trillion worth of critical minerals.
Here’s the kicker: April 13, 2021 - EU and Ukraine sign Strategic Partnership on Raw Materials. Official aim: make Ukraine Europe’s critical materials supplier for Green Deal, reducing EU dependence on China and Russia for lithium and rare earths.
Russia invades twelve months later and secures the exact regions containing these deposits.
Activists argued NATO. Media covered tactics. Politicians debated security. Meanwhile, Russia quietly became Europe’s lithium dealer. You can’t build EVs without lithium. Europe needs ten times current supply by 2050. Russia now controls Europe’s largest reserves.
Pattern or coincidence?
Now Venezuela.
Everyone’s discussing 303 billion barrels of oil. World’s largest reserves. Sounds massive.
But if it’s valuable, why did Venezuela’s economy collapse owning it? Because their oil is extra-heavy crude requiring expensive refining and collapsed infrastructure. That’s not a strategic asset. That’s an expensive liability.
What nobody’s discussing: 2016 - Maduro designated 12% of Venezuelan territory as special mining zone. The Arco Minero del Orinoco. Official claims: 340 million tonnes nickel, massive copper, coltan for telecommunications and defence, rare earths, thorium, silver deposits.
Mining sector analysis reported “opacity of mining practices” with “no transparency” and “no independent verification.”
Nobody knows what’s down there or what’s being extracted. Twelve percent of territory is a black box. What you can’t verify, you can’t challenge.
September 2024: Russia’s Federal Budget allocates $535 million for precious metals including silver. Unprecedented. First central bank to systematically accumulate silver in modern era.
Why silver matters: Global silver market in fifth consecutive year of supply deficit. Production: 850-900 million ounces annually. Demand: exceeding supply by 182 million ounces. Price hit $70/ounce December 2025 (130-140% gains).
Every AI data centre server requires 15-25 grams silver. Irreplaceable - copper and aluminium lack sufficient conductivity. IT power capacity increased 5,252% since 2000. Every AI advancement requires more servers. Every server requires silver.
Solar panels: 20 grams per panel. Electric vehicles: 25-50 grams per vehicle (67-79% more than combustion engines). Industrial demand now over half global silver consumption.
The timing:
September 2024: Russia announces silver accumulation
December 2025: Silver hits record prices
January 3, 2026: US strikes Venezuela, Trump states goal to “run” Venezuela and access resources
Within 24 hours: protests mobilised, everyone argues imperialism versus liberation. Nobody discusses Mining Arc opacity or silver deficit whilst AI infrastructure expands.
Russia’s proven method: 2019-2020, Russia transported Venezuelan gold reserves via charter planes to shadow markets. Reuters documented it. Small, dense materials don’t require tankers. They require discrete transport capability Russia’s already demonstrated.
Side by side:
Ukraine 2022:
Public narrative - NATO expansion
Beneath occupied territories - Europe’s largest lithium, titanium, rare earths
Partnership before conflict - EU-Ukraine Raw Materials (April 2021)
Military outcome - Russia controls 40% metal resources, 50-100% lithium
Everyone argued - NATO, Putin, democracy
Nobody emphasised - critical minerals for green technology
Venezuela 2026:
Public narrative - US imperialism
Beneath opaque zone - Mining Arc with silver during supply crisis
Russian connection - documented gold extraction method
Military outcome - US controls opaque mining zone
Everyone argues - imperialism, sovereignty
Nobody emphasises - materials for AI infrastructure
Same pattern. Both conflicts secure technology infrastructure materials whilst public argues moral legitimacy.
Why oil and NATO provide cover:
Oil and NATO are visible, debatable, emotionally compelling. Everyone understands them.
Critical minerals? Invisible. Opaque zones. No verification. Small, transportable. Tomorrow’s technology.
Venezuela’s 303 billion oil barrels dominates headlines. Meanwhile, Mining Arc = 12% territory = black box.
Ukraine’s NATO debate dominated coverage. Meanwhile, lithium deposits = exact regions Russia occupied.
Visible narratives dominate whilst invisible materials get secured.
Is it practical? Ukraine proves yes. Russia occupied resource regions, everyone argued NATO, Russia secured 40% metal resources. Venezuela follows identical pattern.
Is it logical? Yes. Oil and NATO are yesterday’s debates. Lithium and silver are tomorrow’s infrastructure - both in deficit. Europe needs ten times current lithium by 2050. AI needs silver with no substitute. First mover advantage determines technology development.
What’s the likely outcome? Deficits worsen. Technology expands. Whoever secured supply chains first has advantage. Activists move on. Russia controls Ukraine’s lithium. US controls Venezuela’s Mining Arc. Silver deficit continues. Everyone keeps arguing NATO and imperialism whilst extraction continues.
Ukraine 2022: moral narrative about NATO. Military outcome: Europe’s lithium secured.
Venezuela 2026: moral narrative about dictatorship. Military outcome: Mining Arc secured during silver crisis.
Pattern documented. Not speculation. Observable reality across two conflicts.
Resource wars disguised as moral conflicts. People prefer arguing principles over examining material logistics.
Minerals power electric vehicles, process AI calculations, generate solar electricity, enable defence systems.
Russia invaded Ukraine twelve months after EU partnership on raw materials.
US struck Venezuela during silver supply crisis.
Same pattern. Both conflicts. Documented facts.
That’s the pattern. Either you see it or you don’t.
The Almighty Gob is an independent blogger and satirical commentator specialising in Bristol City Council accountability and general institutional dysfunction analysis. Subscribe right now, and bookmark - thealmightygob.com .
Sources and Citations.
Ukraine’s Mineral Resources: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), “Rare earths and strategic minerals in Ukraine,” February 2025 | NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, “Ukraine’s resources: Critical raw materials,” March 2025 | World Economic Forum, “The future of critical raw materials in Ukraine and the world,” July 2024 | Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), “The Mineral Wars,” 2025 | Al Jazeera, “Mapping Ukraine’s rare earth and critical minerals,” March 2025.
EU-Ukraine Strategic Partnership: European Commission, “EU and Ukraine launch Strategic Partnership on Raw Materials,” 13 April 2021.
Russian Control: Reuters reports 2022-2024 on Russian control of Ukrainian mineral resources | Ukrainian think tanks We Build Ukraine and National Institute of Strategic Studies estimates.
Venezuela’s Mining Arc: Mining sector analyses 2024-2025 documenting “opacity of mining practices.”
Russia’s Silver: Russian Federal Budget documentation, September 2024, allocating 51 billion rubles ($535 million) for precious metals including silver.
Silver Market: COMEX inventory data 2024-2025 | Silver Institute reports on fifth consecutive year of supply deficit | Mining analyst projections on solar panel silver consumption.
Russia-Venezuela Gold: Reuters documentation 2019-2020 of Russian gold extraction operations via charter planes.
Brilliant framing of resource geopolitics through the mineral lens. The timing you documented (EU-Ukraine partnership April 2021, invasion 12 months later) is damning when you map it against occupied regions. What really gets me is how the surface narrative (NATO expansion, dictatorship) provides perfect cover for what's actualy happening beneath. The Venezuela parallel with the Mining Arc opacity is chilling, especially the silver deficit angle nobody's tracking. Had a buddy work in resource extraction consulting who always said the real wars are fought over what powers the next generation of tech, not the current one.
See what Ali has been writing on this, quite extensively (he's my source of information :)). Starting here:https://ehadnameh.substack.com/p/the-convergence-how-silver-market